Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
